常見換怪選擇錯誤 - 線上
By Tristan Cohan
at 2017-01-19T11:32
at 2017-01-19T11:32
Table of Contents
※ 引述《UNLINK (斷線)》之銘言:
: 原PO的設定的情況 "己方只有7 2生物 對方只有2 2守護生物 要不要換"
: 在沒有更多條件下原PO認為換掉是最好的選擇
: 因為對方如果做了其他選擇 如法術解場 會優於拿2 2撞掉
: 無論如何在對方沒打錯的情況 己方7 2都得死不如直接撞掉
: 但是隨便加幾個條件都可以推翻上面的選擇
: 2-pick、rank、PP、進化點、血量、牌型、打過的牌、手上的牌 都得考慮進去
: 因為沒有上帝視角 對方可能會做一個雙方都覺得有利的決定
: 例如
: 你預測 7 2不撞賭右手進旋風斬 比較有利
: 對方預測 你7 2不撞應該是在等疾走解場 然後丟了死亡祝福走臉搶血比較有利
一樣先假設對手理性,不會發生失誤,且能考慮到各種情況
因上述假設,對手不會忽略你有旋風斬的可能性,若只考慮場面用22換72是最合理的選擇
對手會不換的可能性是
a.斬殺線將至,場面無所謂了
這種情況下就是72不換22導致死亡,所以必須換
b.不搶傷害的話獲勝機率渺茫,只能賭了
那你還不快換掉他抹消他的勝機?
c.有更佳解
不用說,肯定讓你後悔剛才沒換
說不定還有其他可能,不過我目前沒有想到,可以再提出來討論
除非已經絕望到必須賭對手失誤,或你的分段對手還真的常常失誤,不然還是換掉好
--
: 原PO的設定的情況 "己方只有7 2生物 對方只有2 2守護生物 要不要換"
: 在沒有更多條件下原PO認為換掉是最好的選擇
: 因為對方如果做了其他選擇 如法術解場 會優於拿2 2撞掉
: 無論如何在對方沒打錯的情況 己方7 2都得死不如直接撞掉
: 但是隨便加幾個條件都可以推翻上面的選擇
: 2-pick、rank、PP、進化點、血量、牌型、打過的牌、手上的牌 都得考慮進去
: 因為沒有上帝視角 對方可能會做一個雙方都覺得有利的決定
: 例如
: 你預測 7 2不撞賭右手進旋風斬 比較有利
: 對方預測 你7 2不撞應該是在等疾走解場 然後丟了死亡祝福走臉搶血比較有利
一樣先假設對手理性,不會發生失誤,且能考慮到各種情況
因上述假設,對手不會忽略你有旋風斬的可能性,若只考慮場面用22換72是最合理的選擇
對手會不換的可能性是
a.斬殺線將至,場面無所謂了
這種情況下就是72不換22導致死亡,所以必須換
b.不搶傷害的話獲勝機率渺茫,只能賭了
那你還不快換掉他抹消他的勝機?
c.有更佳解
不用說,肯定讓你後悔剛才沒換
說不定還有其他可能,不過我目前沒有想到,可以再提出來討論
除非已經絕望到必須賭對手失誤,或你的分段對手還真的常常失誤,不然還是換掉好
--
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