麻雀格鬥俱樂部7 何切る問題 10/21題目 - 日本麻將

By Blanche
at 2009-11-17T12:52
at 2009-11-17T12:52
Table of Contents
趁著上班閒暇時間,把這個問題又拿出來看。
基本上打2m跟8m入牌數跟胡牌數是一樣的,只差在三色同順的張數不同。
以下皆以一向聽做考量
切2m的情況:
進2S ->2P 5P
5S(4)->2P(3) 5P(2)
2P ->2S 5S
5P(2)->2S(3) 5S(4)
6P(2)->2S(3) 5S(4)
胡牌同時能達成三色同順的機率
=>(4/15)*(2/5)+(2/15)*(4/7)+(2/15)*(4/7) = 25.8%
切8m的情況:
進2S(3)->2P(3) 5P(2)
5S ->2P 5P
2P(3)->2S(3) 5S(4)
5P ->2S 5S
6P ->2S 5S
胡牌同時能達成三色同順的機率
=>(3/15)*(3/7)+(3/15)*(3/5) = 20.6%
表面上看來兩者相比的確差了5%左右,
切2m的情況下,無論進什麼張,必定要等5S或5P
切8M的情況下,必定要等2S或2P。
以實戰來看,不論立直與否,2S2P出現的機率遠大於5S5P....
結論:以表面數據來說,切2m的機率的確大於切8m。
但考慮到實戰捨牌來說,234面的三色達成率要比345大多了。
如此一來,打8m也是個不比2m差的選擇不是嗎?
以上簡略的計算,如有思考上的漏洞或計算上的失誤請指正並多包含。
謝謝。
--
基本上打2m跟8m入牌數跟胡牌數是一樣的,只差在三色同順的張數不同。
以下皆以一向聽做考量
切2m的情況:
進2S ->2P 5P
5S(4)->2P(3) 5P(2)
2P ->2S 5S
5P(2)->2S(3) 5S(4)
6P(2)->2S(3) 5S(4)
胡牌同時能達成三色同順的機率
=>(4/15)*(2/5)+(2/15)*(4/7)+(2/15)*(4/7) = 25.8%
切8m的情況:
進2S(3)->2P(3) 5P(2)
5S ->2P 5P
2P(3)->2S(3) 5S(4)
5P ->2S 5S
6P ->2S 5S
胡牌同時能達成三色同順的機率
=>(3/15)*(3/7)+(3/15)*(3/5) = 20.6%
表面上看來兩者相比的確差了5%左右,
切2m的情況下,無論進什麼張,必定要等5S或5P
切8M的情況下,必定要等2S或2P。
以實戰來看,不論立直與否,2S2P出現的機率遠大於5S5P....
結論:以表面數據來說,切2m的機率的確大於切8m。
但考慮到實戰捨牌來說,234面的三色達成率要比345大多了。
如此一來,打8m也是個不比2m差的選擇不是嗎?
以上簡略的計算,如有思考上的漏洞或計算上的失誤請指正並多包含。
謝謝。
--
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日本麻將
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