阿斯旺的地攤商人查比爾偏心 - 楓之谷
By Megan
at 2012-08-27T15:08
at 2012-08-27T15:08
Table of Contents
→ tbstien:後面寫的"消耗可升級數值"是什麼意思呢?? 08/26 20:45
推 LUKALI:他這個設定根本就太違反玩家期望了 怎麼會消耗捲數越多 08/26 20:54
→ LUKALI:過的機率越低咧= = 08/26 20:54
2.3個帝王幣:阿斯旺防具智力卷軸 50%
智力+8,消耗可升級數值4
3.3個帝王幣:阿斯旺飾品敏捷卷軸 50%
敏捷+8,消耗可升級數值4
雖然我沒有真的去炸過阿斯旺防具ＸＸ卷軸，但是從字面上的意思來看，「
消耗升級次數」就是該防具本身能衝捲的次數。如果是這樣的話：
考慮一件裝、消耗同樣升級次數，而獲得ＸＸ+8的情況：
一、用普通防具ＸＸ卷軸60%（ＸＸ+2，每一張消耗升級次數1）
連過4張的機率是: (0.6)^4 = 0.1296
期望值: (+8)*0.1296 = 1.0368
二、用帝王幣買阿斯旺防具ＸＸ卷軸50%（ＸＸ+8，每一張消耗升級次數4）
過一張機率是: (0.5)^1 = 0.5
期望值: (+8)*0.5 = 4
也就是說，當最後結果都是ＸＸ+8，而消耗升級次數一樣時（拿60%連下四張
，跟下一張阿斯旺防具ＸＸ捲），阿斯捲的期望值是是4，但普通防具ＸＸ捲的期
望值才1.0368。
如果這個遊戲的衝捲過與不過真的是機率的話，那怎麼看都是阿斯捲划算啊。
→ away01231259:捲數多機率低比較正常吧 08/26 20:55
→ away01231259:想一下一般60%連過四張的機率是多少.. 08/26 20:55
正解。
推 notimenofree:感覺買60%一張一張衝比較折衷!!買阿斯旺捲比較兩極 08/26 23:49
機率問題通常是最容易讓人產生錯覺的問題。
誤導的點在於， 60%捲連炸四張的機率 = (0.4)^4 = 0.0256 ；但是阿斯捲
爆一張就等於爆四張，機率是 0.5。
--
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