請給個數據幫我統計色違大嘴的機率,謝謝 - PokemonGO

By Callum
at 2018-03-06T22:13
at 2018-03-06T22:13
Table of Contents
最近一直在打大嘴娃,想試試看多久會遇到色違。
到今天為止,總共打了58場沒有遇到色違。
https://i.imgur.com/WT1H2nq.png
(2場懶得抓)
三個朋友好奇也打了幾場,結果有1人就幸運中獎。
他們分別是 2/0、2/0、3/1
之前有人分享國外的統計,機率是8%。
假如是8%,算了一下連續58場沒色違的機率是0.793%
也就是1萬人連打58場,只有80個左右會很幸運的沒遇到色違。
看來我算是天賦異稟。
很好奇現在機率到底如何?
我個人最終是一定會打完100場,不過樣本當然還是太少太少。
所以希望各位有打過大嘴的寶友們提供一下您們的數據。
無論您有無色違,就算您只打過一場,歡迎回應一下。
如果有附上貼圖,打最多場的前3名(無論有無色違),
分別送上 150P、100P、50P,聊表心意。
(不好意思,家境清寒無法給多)
3/11晚上,我會做統計。
期待大家的幫忙,在此先謝過。
補充: 謝謝YATAGA大大提到SEEN數字太小會更不準確的看法。
不過我倒是有不同的想法:
只要盡量避免倖存者偏差:多數都只是天選之子的留言。
沒中獎者也多多留言的話,累計許多開圖鑑的一場,
還是會有一定的準確度。
畢竟多數人開圖鑑後,會選擇把票花在投報率更高的5星場或超夢塔上面。
所以很多玩家都只會打5場以下。
因此拜託沒有遇到色違的朋友,不要吝於留言。
即使一場,也請您留個1場0的訊息,謝謝
--
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