計算了一些抽牌和抽卡包的機率 - 線上

用程式計算了一下一些簡單的機率(數字為四捨五入)

[表格] 先攻全力找卡拿到機率
意思是收抽沒抽到就全換，未考慮抽牌卡(摸頭、哥布林法師等等)

簡單結論請直接下一頁

目標卡牌數 (6=3張目標+3張拉指定牌，例如放3女僕拉3旗)
回合數 1 2 3 6
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1 17.5% 32.31% 44.78% 71.14%
2 20.0% 36.41% 49.8% 76.39%
3 22.5% 40.38% 54.5% 80.82%
4 25.0% 44.23% 58.91% 84.53%
5 27.5% 47.95% 63.02% 87.62%
6 30.0% 51.54% 66.84% 90.18%
7 32.5% 55.0% 70.39% 92.29%
8 35.0% 58.33% 73.68% 94.0%
9 37.5% 61.54% 76.72% 95.39%
10 40.0% 64.62% 79.51% 96.49%
11 42.5% 67.56% 82.07% 97.37%
12 45.0% 70.38% 84.41% 98.06%
13 47.5% 73.08% 86.54% 98.59%
14 50.0% 75.64% 88.46% 98.99%
15 52.5% 78.08% 90.19% 99.29%
16 55.0% 80.38% 91.74% 99.52%
17 57.5% 82.56% 93.12% 99.68%
18 60.0% 84.62% 94.33% 99.79%
19 62.5% 86.54% 95.39% 99.87%
20 65.0% 88.33% 96.32% 99.92%
21 67.5% 90.0% 97.11% 99.96%
22 70.0% 91.54% 97.77% 99.98%
23 72.5% 92.95% 98.33% 99.99%
24 75.0% 94.23% 98.79% 99.99%
25 77.5% 95.38% 99.15% 100.0%
26 80.0% 96.41% 99.43% 100.0%
27 82.5% 97.31% 99.65% 100.0%
28 85.0% 98.08% 99.8% 100.0%
29 87.5% 98.72% 99.9% 100.0%
30 90.0% 99.23% 99.96% 100.0%
31 92.5% 99.62% 99.99% 100.0%
32 95.0% 99.87% 100.0% 100.0%
33 97.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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一些常見機率(未考慮摸頭等等抽牌、濾牌卡)：

旗皇3+3 4回合有旗機率 & 復仇吸3+3 4回合可以進復仇機率
84.53%(先攻) 87.62%(後攻)

蛙皇3張蛙 3回合有蛙機率
54.5%(先攻) 58.91%(後攻)


下面，沒列在表格上另外算的，高費牌持有機率
考慮通常高費關鍵牌還是會換掉避免卡手，
下面數據是先攻、三張全換、抽到目標高費也會換掉的機率
(沒計算拉牌、濾牌，所以實際通常會更高)

5T快皇手上有星爆 52.97%
6T死靈手上有死祝 57.84%
7T死靈手上有ㄇㄐㄐ 62.36%
9T天盾教手上有天盾 70.4%

再強調一次，以上數據皆未計算濾牌。可以查表觀察一下濾牌效益。
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抽卡包機率

抽一包有虹卡機率: 11.39%
抽十包有虹卡機率: 70.15%
首抽 48 包無虹卡: 3% <---- 為什麼會算這個，因為我中獎過..

10抽虹卡數量期望值: 1.2張
首抽48包虹卡期望值: 5.76張

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