破例發第二篇文教大家微風恐懼傷害算法 - 仙境傳說
By David
at 2016-12-13T14:37
at 2016-12-13T14:37
Table of Contents
※ 引述《frank9610111 (貓)》之銘言：
: 皆不考慮miss
: 微風恐懼 30%觸法（我ro裡面寫10%)
: 12% 2倍
: 9% 3倍
: 6% 4倍
: 3% 5倍
: （12%*2+9%*3+6%*4+3%*5）=0.9（在這邊用"微風恐懼"一詞代替)
: （12%*2+9%*3+6%*4+3%*5）+0.7=1.6
: 這是你們在用的算法
你知道1.6是什麼嗎? (0.7那一項是70%*1, 70%機率只有1hit)
1.6是指發動微風恐懼這招之後攻擊的hit數期望值
我不知道你算0.9出來要做啥
: 我說的發動傷害期望值3倍算法是
: (12/30)*2+(9/30)*3+(6/30)*4+(3/30)*5 =3.0
你是想算假設微風必發動的hit數期望值?
那你算錯了 12/30並不是微風必發動的情況下2hit的機率
12%的樣本空間是微風只有30%發動機率的情況
跟樣本空間是微風100%發動機率的情況不一樣(事實上100%發動的機率是0)
你想要搞條件機率可惜條件機率不是這樣隨便湊一湊就好了
數學是有嚴謹定義的
不是你高興想怎樣算就怎樣算
--
--
: 皆不考慮miss
: 微風恐懼 30%觸法（我ro裡面寫10%)
: 12% 2倍
: 9% 3倍
: 6% 4倍
: 3% 5倍
: （12%*2+9%*3+6%*4+3%*5）=0.9（在這邊用"微風恐懼"一詞代替)
: （12%*2+9%*3+6%*4+3%*5）+0.7=1.6
: 這是你們在用的算法
你知道1.6是什麼嗎? (0.7那一項是70%*1, 70%機率只有1hit)
1.6是指發動微風恐懼這招之後攻擊的hit數期望值
我不知道你算0.9出來要做啥
: 我說的發動傷害期望值3倍算法是
: (12/30)*2+(9/30)*3+(6/30)*4+(3/30)*5 =3.0
你是想算假設微風必發動的hit數期望值?
那你算錯了 12/30並不是微風必發動的情況下2hit的機率
12%的樣本空間是微風只有30%發動機率的情況
跟樣本空間是微風100%發動機率的情況不一樣(事實上100%發動的機率是0)
你想要搞條件機率可惜條件機率不是這樣隨便湊一湊就好了
數學是有嚴謹定義的
不是你高興想怎樣算就怎樣算
--
--
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