現金桌一手牌 - 撲克牌

※ 引述《pk2003 (Gosd)》之銘言：
: 大家好
: 7人菊
: 我拿JJ 50/100現金桌
: 我是UTG+1
: UTG 是松兇玩家
: raise 500
: I call 共4家 扣 POT2000多
: UTG 籌碼20000 突然超POT 打6000
: 開 J T 9 兩張紅心 他說他KQ不讓我們買
: 大家問一下 一般都是READ他 KQ的話 會CALL機率高嗎?
: 我fold了 river J..................
: 我算了 我flop 36% turn 20%
: 謝謝...




以下若有錯誤之處請指正

call下去就要有整組籌碼丟進去的打算
flop call, pot $14K, UTG籌碼剩20k
後面bet就等於要pot committed

pot odds(FLOP) : 33% (6k/8k)
估計implied odds: 71% (20k/28k)

type UTG range your odds comment
-------- ------- ----------- ------------
TPTK AJ 95% easy call
overpair AA-QQ 76% easy call
2 pair JT,T9,J9 96% easy call
set TT/99 92% easy call
str8 KQ,87,Q8 30%~36% judge call
flush+str8 draw AKs-AQs 60% easy call
flush draw ATs-A2s 70% easy call

Conclusion: call ?

No, I'd raise instead.
If any heart shown at turn :
(1) Most of his range will slow him down. His c/f wont make you extract more
value from him.
(2) His turn bet or c/r will put your ass on the tough spot. You have no idea
how to proceed.

My Conclusion:
Fold is worst.
Call is ok but u may face tough spot later.
Raise is best to me :)

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