橘裝實際掉落率分析 - WOW
By Heather
at 2016-12-07T12:39
at 2016-12-07T12:39
Table of Contents
在巴哈看到有人貼,點進去看覺得很有意思,沒人發我來簡單分享一下。
英文數學樣樣不通,有錯歡迎各位指正與鞭笞。
原文:https://goo.gl/dXniia
簡單說一下,這個作者很有才,使用了PHP機器人去wowprogress.com上面
撈了單一歐洲伺服器近萬人過去4週的橘裝獲得狀況來分析。
我的理解是他透過橘裝獲取管道對應橘裝獲取數量,為每一個橘裝獲取
的管道定義了一個KP分數如下,分數越高應該是取得的機率越大。
要注意的是,這僅僅為數據分析結果,並不代表真實的掉落率,實際掉落率
只能等BZ自行公布才能知道。
http://i.imgur.com/1nl1zQ3.gif
從而反推BZ所謂的防黑機制(Bad luck protection)
當你的KP累積達到一定的值,你就會獲得一件橘裝,也間接證實了只要你夠努力,
就一定會拿到橘裝這件事。
而從圖表看得出,每當你獲得一件橘裝,你下一件橘裝所需的KP是遞增的;
也就是防黑機制是有其效益遞減,橘裝越多就需要更多的努力才能獲得下一件。
(這裡不討論純正歐洲貴族血統這種離群值)
另外還要提一下,由於數據採樣的樣本數跟時間範圍並不算非常廣,
所以應該算是一個相對不夠嚴謹但能提供一定參考意義的統計數據,
拜託不要算了自己的KP達到對應的值但沒出橘裝而跑來抱怨。
估計是wowprogress上面該伺服器沒有統計到5橘人,所以4 to 5 Won呈現0的狀態。
這也告訴了我們一個殘酷的事實,當你拿了四件甚至五件橘裝卻都不是核心橘,
你除了加倍努力以外,大概也只能...
幫QQ了
剛回來看了推文我決定再來補充說明一下好了
----------------------------------------------------------------
這篇數據分析是結果推導過程的逆向工程,原作者採用了一個固定數值
KP(kill Points)來幫助理解,這裡大多數的KP數據都是採平均值;
意味著並非每個人都在達到相同KP就會拿到橘裝。
所以這並不是一個集點兌換商品的機制,而是一個百分比的堆疊,
這個機制的運作可能類似痛苦術靈魂碎片獲取的原理。
大概是這樣:
我們每個人都有一個很低的初始機率可以在觸發橘裝機制的時候獲得橘裝,
當你觸發橘裝機制(例如開箱子)時,如果沒有獲得橘裝,系統會增加一些
你獲得橘裝的機率,如果你第二次第三次觸發橘裝機制仍然沒有獲得橘裝,
系統就會不斷堆疊增加獲取機率。
以From 0 to 1這個例子來看,我們可以這樣解讀為
「當累積KP值到194的時候,我們獲得橘裝的機率會趨近於100%」
被虛了修正
終究我們初始獲得橘裝的機率不等於零。
然後當你拿到橘裝,系統取消你的堆疊,你的橘裝獲取率回到最初很低的
那個初始值,但是第二次的堆疊將會比第一次慢,第三次又比第二次慢,
以此類推。
這樣同學們有沒有比較了解呢?
--
英文數學樣樣不通,有錯歡迎各位指正與鞭笞。
原文:https://goo.gl/dXniia
簡單說一下,這個作者很有才,使用了PHP機器人去wowprogress.com上面
撈了單一歐洲伺服器近萬人過去4週的橘裝獲得狀況來分析。
我的理解是他透過橘裝獲取管道對應橘裝獲取數量,為每一個橘裝獲取
的管道定義了一個KP分數如下,分數越高應該是取得的機率越大。
要注意的是,這僅僅為數據分析結果,並不代表真實的掉落率,實際掉落率
只能等BZ自行公布才能知道。
http://i.imgur.com/1nl1zQ3.gif
從而反推BZ所謂的防黑機制(Bad luck protection)
當你的KP累積達到一定的值,你就會獲得一件橘裝,也間接證實了只要你夠努力,
就一定會拿到橘裝這件事。
而從圖表看得出,每當你獲得一件橘裝,你下一件橘裝所需的KP是遞增的;
也就是防黑機制是有其效益遞減,橘裝越多就需要更多的努力才能獲得下一件。
(這裡不討論純正歐洲貴族血統這種離群值)
另外還要提一下,由於數據採樣的樣本數跟時間範圍並不算非常廣,
所以應該算是一個相對不夠嚴謹但能提供一定參考意義的統計數據,
拜託不要算了自己的KP達到對應的值但沒出橘裝而跑來抱怨。
估計是wowprogress上面該伺服器沒有統計到5橘人,所以4 to 5 Won呈現0的狀態。
這也告訴了我們一個殘酷的事實,當你拿了四件甚至五件橘裝卻都不是核心橘,
你除了加倍努力以外,大概也只能...
幫QQ了
剛回來看了推文我決定再來補充說明一下好了
----------------------------------------------------------------
這篇數據分析是結果推導過程的逆向工程,原作者採用了一個固定數值
KP(kill Points)來幫助理解,這裡大多數的KP數據都是採平均值;
意味著並非每個人都在達到相同KP就會拿到橘裝。
所以這並不是一個集點兌換商品的機制,而是一個百分比的堆疊,
這個機制的運作可能類似痛苦術靈魂碎片獲取的原理。
大概是這樣:
我們每個人都有一個很低的初始機率可以在觸發橘裝機制的時候獲得橘裝,
當你觸發橘裝機制(例如開箱子)時,如果沒有獲得橘裝,系統會增加一些
你獲得橘裝的機率,如果你第二次第三次觸發橘裝機制仍然沒有獲得橘裝,
系統就會不斷堆疊增加獲取機率。
以From 0 to 1這個例子來看,我們可以這樣解讀為
「當累積KP值到194的時候,我們獲得橘裝的機率會趨近於100%」
被虛了修正
→ arcross: 並不是累積到194努力你就會有接近100%的機率開除橘裝
→ arcross: 應該說成累積到194努力的人之中 接近100%的人有橘裝
還有些詳細內容請看下面推文,感謝指正。 終究我們初始獲得橘裝的機率不等於零。
然後當你拿到橘裝,系統取消你的堆疊,你的橘裝獲取率回到最初很低的
那個初始值,但是第二次的堆疊將會比第一次慢,第三次又比第二次慢,
以此類推。
這樣同學們有沒有比較了解呢?
--
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