寶石升級機率研究(S3 to S4) - 暗黑破壞神

Title : Gem Level-up Alleged Rate Experiment (GLARE) Study.

Aim : To investigate real gem-levelup rate compared to alleged rate.

Method: Enrolled all gem level-up events(GLE) which the system declared 60%
successful rate from the beginning of S3 to S4 (2015/9/18).
7 Taeguk, 5 Bane of Trapped, 5 Gogok of Swiftness, 4 Enforcer
3 Bane of Stricken and 2 Boon of Hoarders, total 1185 GLE are
documented and analysed with SPSS ver. 16 (IBM).

Result: Taeguk Trapped Gogok Enforcer Stricken Hoarder
#1 25/ 46 28/ 66 28/ 60 30/ 72 30/ 78 22/ 49
#2 22/ 42 20/ 60 18/ 40 12/ 20 28/ 80 22/ 45
#3 20/ 48 19/ 49 14/ 33 10/ 21 24/ 94
#4 18/ 30 18/ 48 14/ 29 9/ 18
#5 14/ 32 18/ 45 14/ 28
#6 12/ 28
#7 10/ 24
SUM 121/250 103/268 88/190 61/131 82/252 44/ 94
rate 48.4% 38.4% 46.3% 46.6% 32.5% 46.8%
* p-value is 0.11 indicates no statistic inter-gem differences.
** x/y indicates y times of GLE which has 60% successful rate and
x times of success.

Overall successful rate is 42.1%.

Conclusion: The result indicate the successful rate of 60% GLE is 42.1%
Much lower than 60% alleged by the Diablo III system.

簡單的說, 收集了1185次 升級寶石時標示60%的事件, 然後看看是否真的為60%
因為1185次應該能夠有比較客觀的機率了, 但結果是42.1%.....

準備貼官方 =.=






--