Bridge Master 2000--Lv.2 B3 機率的問題 - 橋牌

Bridge Master 2000--Lv.2 B-3


解說中提到：

Some bridge problems can be solved only by using probabilities. 3 diamond
tricks can be taken if that suit divides 3-2. A 3-2 break will occur about
68% of the time. An extra trick in hearts can be taken if West has either the
HK or the HQ or both honours. West will have 1 or more heart honours about 76%
of the time.


但是小弟實際去算：
2-3+3-2分配的機率
╭5 ╭5
╰2 + ╰3
───── = 20/32 = 62.5%
2*2*2*2*2

和解說中的68%不一樣，
請問大家小弟有什麼case沒考慮到或是有地方算錯嗎？


而West有一張紅心人頭的機率（QK在外）
小弟算是1-1/4(QK都在East) = 3/4 = 0.75%
和解說中的76%也有1%的不同。


請問各位版友，是小弟有地方算錯還是解說有誤？
感謝大家。

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